Return to site

The Lights Darken Before They Go Out

April 8, 2025

Michael Maness

Greetings from Sydney.

 

Even from here I can see a the clouds darkening.

The rich are beginning to hoard bonds like a survivalist holds onto ammo.

That’s not confidence. That’s retreat.

That’s not risk-taking. That’s bunker-building.

When the biggest players in the financial system start piling into U.S. government bonds, they’re not trying to win what that means is they’re trying to withstand. Treasury bonds aren’t where you chase growth. 

They’re where you hide when you don’t trust the weather, when the sky goes green in the Ozarks and the air gets heavy with something you can’t name yet.

 

And this?

This isn’t just a technical market reaction.

It’s a signal from the deep structure of trust.

Bond markets don’t just reflect interest rate, they reflect belief in the system itself: its competence, its continuity, its memory. When investors rush toward safety, they’re not merely hedging risk. People are questioning the story that holds economic order together.

Because tariffs aren’t just taxes.

They’re symbolic moves that shake the idea of coherence. They raise the deeper questions:

Is there a strategy?

A plan?

A stabilizing force behind the curtain?

Markets don’t just crave profit. They crave predictability.

When that vanishes, the smartest money gets skittish first.

And this week, that money moved fast:

Yields on long-term Treasuries dropped like a storm was coming.

Traders started betting on emergency rate cuts from the Fed.

Risk assets were left out in the open, while bonds became the bunker of choice.

You don’t need to understand every lever to feel what’s happening:

When the people who usually keep the game going start stacking supplies and heading underground, it’s not about fear. It’s about pattern recognition.

They’ve seen this storm before.

They know how the lights flicker before they go out.

Don’t read the headlines. Watch who’s heading for cover.

Michael Maness is Innovator-in-Residence at Harvard Business School and the former VP Journalism at the Knight Ridder Foundation.